Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Liberals are still in the doghouse.

Contrary to what the Montreal Gazette is trying to tell you, the Federal Liberals are still in the doghouse and have been for a long time.

The headline is incredibly misleading, and even contradicts itself furthur in the article:

-The Liberals are worse off now than they were last year:

That's the good news for Quebec Liberals. The bad news for them - and there's plenty of it - is that the Bloc Quebecois remained 22 points ahead of the Grits at 50 per cent. The gap between the parties is even wider than when the Liberals got crushed in Quebec in 2004.

The Bloc took 54 of Quebec's 75 seats last year with a popular vote margin of 15 points - 49 per cent Bloc, 34 Liberal.

Furthur more, if you look at the history of Federal elections and the way in which Quebecers vote, the Liberals have been in the doghouse since 1984.

The last time the Liberals dominated the Quebec electorate was in 1980, where they got all but one seat in Quebec.

In 1984, after the first referendum, that number suddenly collapses to 14.

In 1988, it goes down to 12.

In 1993, after the collapse of the PC, they were able to take a slight increase of seats up to 19.

In 1997 and 2000 they expereinced a small increase receiveing 26 and 36 seats respectively. Renember though, this was the same time when the sponsorship program was in full throttle, and yet they still could'nt beat the BLOC who receieved 44 and 38 seats respectively. (The performance is less impressive when you factor in the popular vote when split among the PC, Alliance and NDP).

And of course we all know of the hammering they Grits took in 2004.

What does this tell us?

That without vote-buying and corruption, the federal Liberals will always be in "the dog house" in Quebec. And that their centralization policies does not reasonate well with voters in this province.

Now in spite of all this does this mean Harper and the Federal Conservatives have no chance in Quebec? Nope. I'll describe why this week-end.


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