Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Good Move by Harper, too good unfortunately.

In an unprecedendant move by the Conservatives, Stephen Harper has decided to take up the challenge by Duceppe after Paul Martin balked at the idea of having a one-on-one debate with Duceppe.

Like many others, I agree that this is indeed a good move by Harper. The problem is...its too good.

Which is why I believe Duceppe will probably turn it down.
Let's review the scenario here.

1.Conservative numbers are low in Quebec. The Bloc on the other hand are at the highest levels of support in their history.
In other words, Ducpee doesn't have much to gain from this.

2.Gilles Duceppe would be coming in as a very clear favorite (which means...he can only disappoint). Harper comes in as a very low underdog...meaning he can only impress.

3.Duceppe's message of making this a referendum on corruption in Quebec would probably suffer from this. As the Conservatives are not tainted at all by the sponsorship program. One of Duceppe's main aim in this election, is to paint all federalists with the corruption brush. Something he won't be able to do with Harper in this debate. That immediately destroys 70 per cent of his campaign message right there.

4. The Courage factor. Quebecers might be impressed with Harper's courage to debate with the leader of the Bloc in a format and language that clearly favors Duceppe. Especially after Martin backed away from such format. Showing that Harper has guts.

5. Harper is in favor of Quebec having more autonomy on controls of its own affairs. And of course...so is Duceppe. One big difference? Duceppe can never get power to implement it. Harper can. And this hard fact might hit Quebecers while they're debating.

And those are the reasons why Duceppe will probably decline this debate by Harper. Harper has everything to gain and almost nothing to loose. Duceppe has everything to loose and very little to gain.

But...I can be wrong.

7 Comments:

At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting points... can't I help but wonder if both Duceppe and Harper couldn't win from this - at least in the short term sense of this particular election. If Harper is able to draw some of the federalist vote that the Liberals have retained, that could help the Bloc electorally.

 
At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Blogger Reg said...

Eaxctly. Harper is 100% correct in stating Martin needs Duceppe and Duceppe needs Martin. The chance that Harper holds his own in a debate and actually becomes the true federalist option would be a disaster for Duceppe and the Bloc.

 
At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Blogger RP. said...

If Harper comes across well, which he would, I don't think it would harm Duceppe much, if at all. All it would do is sway federalist votes away from the Liberals.

When we see that the Liberals are as low as 20% in Quebec, and according to CTV, Martin's own seat is in trouble, we can see that it wouldn't take much migration over to CPC for the BQ to make a clean sweep.

Harper won't win any seats in Quebec, but a BQ sweep be enough to cost the Libs the government.

 
At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think it works out even better if Duceppe refuses it....there's zero chance of a negative sound byte for the libs to broadcast for the rest of the campaign. If it's articulated well, it could really help kickstart the conservatives in quebec(longer-term, i doubt they have the time to really breakthrough now). At the very least it might put candidates like Cannon over the top and symbolically a tory win in Quebec is very important.

 
At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Blogger Adam Daifallah said...

This is without doubt the shrewdest move of the campaign so far. Harper has, in the past two weeks, mastered the great political art of counter-intuitiveness. His denunciation of Ambassador Wilkins' musings is another example.

 
At Wednesday, 21 December, 2005, Blogger Biggie Rection said...

I agree - one of the best moves in the election to date.. You make a good point about Duceppe turning down the offer..

 
At Thursday, 15 July, 2010, Anonymous Anonymous said...

借錢 借貸 票貼

 

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